COVID-19 has increased uncertainty about China`s emissions by 2030. Within the upper limit of China`s current policy under a COVID-19 scenario, CAT projections indicate that China`s greenhouse gas emissions would increase by 2030, while the rate of increase is expected to slow towards the end of the 2020s; At the lower bound, our analysis suggests that it is possible that Chinese emissions peaked as early as 2019. The guidelines identified by experts as the most influential to limit China`s CO2 emissions have been incorporated into a system dynamics model developed in collaboration between the US-based Energy Innovation and China`s National Center for International Climate Change Strategy and Cooperation (NCSC). Two additional changes to the existing policy have also been incorporated into the model, as they have already been announced but not implemented: the reform of the energy sector based on the lowest sending of costs (transition from the current policy of guaranteed dispatch to a policy of sending marginal costs in the electricity sector) and the removal of electricity capacity building objectives (transition from governance planning). (ntal to a market mechanism) the addition of new electrical capacity. Energy sector reform is underway in China, but it remains incomplete. It is necessary to eliminate the objectives of electricity capacity building for coal-based electricity capacity in order to solve the problem of overcapacity in the electricity sector. While the removal of capacity targets is formally provided for in policy documents relating to the reform of China`s energy sector, it has not been strictly adhered to in practice. In addition, the model takes into account technological innovation as an endogenous variable and simulates the impact of a research and development (R&D) policy through a technological learning mechanism.
A mixed methodological approach was used, combining qualitative and quantitative approaches to understand China`s policy gaps to achieve its Paris Agreement goals. Three primary methods were used. The first was to compile an inventory, at the national level, of all policies announced after the year 2000, classified by type and by exhibiting ministry. The second was a survey of experts from Chinese and foreign climate policy experts who conducted an 18-question survey on the effectiveness of the policies identified in our inventory policy. . . .